Document Type
Working Paper
Publication Date
1997
Abstract
Fertility transitions are now well underway in India, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka, and these countries are expected to reach replacement fertility within the next two decades. While high fertility still prevails in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Nepal, these countries are also expected to complete their fertility transitions in the next three or four decades. Despite these encouraging trends in fertility, the populations of all countries in the region are expected to grow substantially, with increases ranging from 50 percent in Sri Lanka to 212 percent in Afghanistan. The long-range trajectory of population growth is very sensitive to minor deviations from the replacement level of fertility. This finding implies that even modest efforts to reduce fertility can have large long-range effects on population size. Available population policy options are discussed in this study.
Recommended Citation
Bongaarts, John and Sajeda Amin. 1997. "Prospects for fertility decline and implications for population growth in South Asia," Policy Research Division Working Paper no. 94. New York: Population Council. Version of record: https://global.oup.com/academic/product/fertility-transition-in-south-asia-9780199241859.
DOI
10.31899/pgy1997.1005
Language
English
Comments
Version of record: https://global.oup.com/academic/product/fertility-transition-in-south-asia-9780199241859