This Population Council working paper has two objectives: (1) to test a new version of the logistic model for the pattern of change over time in age-specific adult mortality rates, and (2) to develop a new method for projecting future trends in adult mortality. A test of the goodness-of-fit of the logistic model for the force of mortality indicates that its slope parameter is nearly constant over time. This finding suggests a variant of the model that is called the shifting logistic model. A new projection method based on the shifting mortality model is proposed and compared with the widely used Lee-Carter procedure.
Bongaarts, John. 2004. "Long-range trends in adult mortality: Models and projection methods," Policy Research Division Working Paper no. 192. New York: Population Council. Version of record: https://doi.org/10.1353/dem.2005.0003