Punjab is currently undergoing a demographic transition from a situation of high fertility and high mortality to one of lower fertility and mortality. The resulting bulge in its working-age population means the province is poised to reap a “demographic dividend.” By 2050, Punjab’s per capita income will be 210 percent higher than today’s levels if there is no decline in fertility, but 431 percent higher if fertility declines rapidly. The scale and effectiveness of efforts to reduce fertility levels in Punjab will determine whether per capita income in the province grows by 333 percent or by 431 percent by 2050. The possible demographic dividend of a 221 percent increase in per capita income is too huge to be ignored in economic growth strategy, especially given Punjab’s burgeoning population, resource constraints, and development aspirations. The findings presented in this policy brief show clearly that, if Punjab is to harness the demographic dividend, planners must invest at least as heavily in efforts to raise the contraceptive prevalence rate as in interventions to educate, train, and productively employ the youth bulge.
Bloom, David E., Zeba Sathar, and Maqsood Sadiq. 2015. "Prospects for economic growth in Punjab under alternative demographic scenarios: The case for a rapid fertility decline," Policy brief. Islamabad: Population Council, The Evidence Project.
The Evidence Project