Sindh is currently undergoing a demographic transition from high fertility and high mortality to lower fertility and mortality. The resulting bulge in its working-age population means the province is poised to reap a “demographic dividend.” By 2050, Sindh’s per capita income will be 191 percent higher than today’s levels if there is no decline in fertility, but 426 percent higher if fertility declines rapidly. The scale and effectiveness of efforts to reduce fertility levels in Sindh will determine whether per capita income in the province grows by 328 percent or 426 percent by 2050. The possible demographic dividend of a 235 percent increase in per capita income is too huge to be ignored in economic growth strategy, especially given Sindh’s burgeoning population, resource constraints, and development aspirations. Findings presented in this policy brief show that, if Sindh is to harness the demographic dividend, planners must invest at least as heavily in efforts to raise the contraceptive prevalence rate as in interventions to educate, train, and productively employ the youth bulge.
Bloom, David E., Zeba Sathar, and Maqsood Sadiq. 2015. "Prospects for economic growth in Sindh under alternative demographic scenarios: The case for a rapid fertility decline," Policy brief. Islamabad: Population Council, The Evidence Project.
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