India, the second most populous country in the world, experienced an accelerated decline in fertility during the 1980s. As a result, India’s total fertility rate (TFR) in 1993, 3.5 births per woman, is below the level presumed in the population projections of the United Nations and the World Bank. This favorable development has occurred as India is attempting to reorient its family planning program to focus on the reproductive health of women and the health and welfare of children. The method-specific targets for contraceptive acceptors assigned to every grassroots health worker were abandoned in April 1996. Against this backdrop, this paper seeks to analyze the components of future population growth in India based on a series of hypothetical projections using alternative assumptions about the future decline in fertility. Only one assumption is made about the pace of mortality decline. The likely consequences of the prospective population growth and the policy options for accelerating fertility decline are also discussed.
Visaria, Leela and Pravin Visaria. 1996. "Prospective population growth and policy options for India, 1991–2101." New York: Population Council.